13 Dec
Modelling prepared for RCVS predicts 50% rise in registered practising vets and 78% increase in the number of RVNs by 2035 – more of the latter than required to meet demand.
Allister Webb
Job Title
The number of vets registered to practise in the UK is expected to rise by more than 50% over the next decade, according to a new report.
Modelling prepared for the RCVS has also predicted a 78% increase in the number of RVNs by 2035.
But the paper warned workforce shortages are likely to continue in key work areas such as public health, even if the overall picture improves.
The analysis further indicated there could be more nurses than required to meet professional demand as early as next year.
College officials say the projections, which draw on recent trends and latest vet school entry forecasts, are a crucial part of the evidence base that they hope will lead to action in areas such as legislative reform and education funding.
During a media briefing on the report, RCVS policy and public affairs manager Ben Myring said: “That is going to help us in our discussions with the Government.”
The projections, compiled by the Institute for Employment Studies and published on 13 December, follow a rising trend over recent years which saw the number of registered vets climb by 25% from 23,600 in 2017 to 29,500 last year, based on college figures.
The number of RVNs rose even faster, by 52%, from 15,200 to 23,100 over the same period.
While annual growth is projected to be slightly slower than during the 2017-2023 period, the report envisages a 52% rise in UK registered vets to nearly 45,000 by 2035. But there is still expected to be a shortage, despite overall supply being forecast from 90% in 2023 to a peak of 96% in 2032.
The biggest gap is likely to remain in government service, with supply falling slightly to 78% of demand over the period, with industry and commerce also expected to see a drop.
But the number of vets in clinical practice is expected to rise to almost 99% of demand, while the report predicts the charitable sector’s demand will be met by around 2029.
The paper also anticipated the number of graduates becoming steadier around that date, following increases in the next few years linked to the opening of new vet schools.
Among nurses, the registered total is projected to climb to more than 41,000 by 2035, with the proportion of professionals in their 40s and 50s doubling and trebling respectively over that period.
Unlike vets, though, the report concludes the supply of nurses is already closer to meeting professional demand and will provide a total surplus soon.
It said: “Overall, the supply of vet nurses equated to 96% of total demand in 2023, and will exceed total demand by 2025, reaching a surplus of 22% over total demand by 2035.”
But the proportion of nurses working in industry, research and other areas including government service is still predicted to fall over the period of analysis.
The college claims the models can be used to assess the likely impact of potential “shocks” to the system, such as the closure of a vet school or policy changes in other parts of the world.
In one example, the report estimated higher overall levels of veterinary cover than presently anticipated – including a matching of supply to demand in clinical practice by 2032 – based on higher levels of entry from overseas universities, more professionals returning and reduced departure rates.
The document also predicted the proportion of vets and nurses working in full-time roles would rise more slowly than the overall registration rates, at 42% and 72% respectively, based on trends detected across the 2019 and 2024 Surveys of the Professions.
